Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 20.534047 22.288654 24.183392 26.391841 28.908386 31.702424 35.061177
2025-08-24 17.441865 19.782688 22.483181 25.868060 30.054117 35.139638 41.911524
2025-08-31 15.399377 18.054317 21.276850 25.558024 31.227919 38.684286 49.609825
2025-09-07 13.912996 16.741130 20.315749 25.297637 32.293204 42.167541 58.003257
2025-09-14 12.820537 15.761805 19.607750 25.193389 33.455597 45.906570 67.711891
2025-09-21 11.889877 14.876631 18.893089 24.933219 34.280982 49.223345 77.667404
2025-09-28 11.476266 14.630338 19.001770 25.832694 36.959111 56.018560 96.247662
2025-10-05 10.810087 13.966046 18.436094 25.620409 37.781743 59.768178 110.293323
2025-10-12 10.264226 13.423118 17.987522 25.518849 38.744769 63.958605 127.224311
2025-10-19 9.883134 13.084865 17.806299 25.811765 40.427882 69.954011 151.942211
2025-10-26 9.428423 12.603176 17.360181 25.602641 41.134199 74.067686 174.083624
2025-11-02 9.014428 12.154160 16.927105 25.362841 41.732886 78.090970 198.921441
2025-11-09 8.678035 11.810872 16.649137 25.390180 42.924117 84.016271 236.551567
2025-11-16 8.322778 11.418260 16.263957 25.186725 43.616252 88.966590 276.296002
2025-11-23 8.004007 11.064269 15.916863 25.017387 44.358740 94.342208 325.804391
2025-11-30 7.706843 10.727671 15.574895 24.821694 45.012407 99.735884 385.087464
2025-12-07 7.453973 10.447881 15.309458 24.745389 45.930616 106.317547 466.712468
2025-12-14 7.192655 10.140833 14.976766 24.502932 46.414336 111.744361 555.711634
2025-12-21 7.128196 10.150243 15.193431 25.384739 49.843435 128.988579 829.353946
2025-12-28 6.902312 9.881122 14.898551 25.180065 50.445055 136.149144 1037.056021
2026-01-04 6.706884 9.653728 14.664774 25.082043 51.321547 144.966763 1354.445260
2026-01-11 6.577356 9.530852 14.612593 25.368082 53.321428 159.936043 2039.155519
2026-01-18 6.389406 9.300249 14.348490 25.164385 53.889673 168.765539 2794.051629